Wednesday, February 12, 2014

FD as Benchmark?

看到网友谈某股的表现时拿该股的回酬还跟定期存款(Fixed Deposit)的回酬来比较。

其实拿定期存款来做Benchmark是欠公平的,定期几乎零风险,而股市期货或任何形式比较复杂的投资需要冒险,险若白冒就好像说无套内射比较爽来跟戴套来比般的不理智了。

在Finance课上有专心听课的人都对CAPM Model不会陌生:
Expected return = (Beta * Market Risk Premium) + Riskfree Rate

而并非等于 Beta + Riskfree rate。

所以比较公平的比法是拿那只股跟KLCI综合指数来比,因为综合指数是股市的标准,而且是大马三十大股跟着比称算出来的指数。

打个比方,去年KLCi从1,685上涨至1,867,共涨了 10.8%,如果你的投资的那只股去年上涨了7%,你拿Fixed Deposit的3%来比,看起来你以为你赚多了4%,不过事实是你的投资比市场差了3.8%!而且中间你还帮自己多冒了个险。(还缴了交易费进股票行的口袋!)。

还有一点是时间跟精力也是有限资源,像我这种白天要上班的,放工回来想看看书,偶尔找朋友喝茶吹水,周末去拍拖看电影,如果需要多花点时间去做技术分析/基本面分析,或去追消息,这个时间精力值不值得花就见仁见智了。况且操盘需要在开市时进行,白天开市时又要上班,值不值得在上班时间分心去操盘也是见仁见智啦。
 
裟婆行者

Monday, February 10, 2014

The Wolf Of Wallstreet 观后感

看了The Wolf Of Wallstreet才明白为什么这个被伊斯兰金融组织筹资拍来讽刺美国金融体系得那么棒的片子反而不能在马来西亚这个伊斯兰国上映。

整部电影从头到尾几乎每几分钟就有漏点Softcore的镜头了。为了衬托主角公司有钱奢侈的浮夸Lifestyle,在家里、车上、船上、甚至公司里都能搞性爱派对,用钞票吸毒,用女人阴道装酒来喝。

如果你是抱着想更了解投资策略的期待来看这部电影,很大可能你会失望,因为整部片没交代太多到技术分析(Technical Analysis)或基本面分析(Fundamental Analysis),只交代到一些股事上造势骗投机者钱的方法(这些方法在多数国家是违法的,马来西亚也不例外。)

主角公司赚钱的必杀技是: 销售技巧。里头其中一个经典的台词是主角创业时为股票行找员工,面试时主角完全不考虑应征者懂不懂金融投资,反而是随手拿笔考道:“Sell me this pen!”

对我而言片子最大的作用是给我们警惕,尤其是对金融投资或是任何我们不太懂得的交易上,千万不要“迷信”任何行业的“专家”,还有值得让人深思的是主角行为最后带来的下场。

裟婆行者

Saturday, January 25, 2014

艺术家と禅师

Great Artists do not think outside the box, but around the edges of the box. Likewise, great spiritual teacher do not preach about outside the worldly things, but at the edges of the Worldly Reality.

厉害的艺术家作品不离时空边际很远,而是在时空边际的周围。同样的,伟大的禅师不是讲出世间法讲净土讲得太遥远的,而是在世间法的边际。

裟婆行者

Saturday, June 15, 2013

《未來在等待的人才》 - 陳漢東老師的分享

昨晚的讀書會我們很榮幸請來了漢東老師跟我們分享“教育”這個課題。漢東老師帶來了一本Daniel H. Pink 的《 未來在等待的人才》,本書的作者我並不陌生,因爲之前我也看過了一本同樣作者所寫的關於想象力的書。

不過這本書我倒是沒聼過,老師在讀書會裏也分享了裏面的重點内容,大概是說到時代的改革:我們的世界經歷了農業時代、工業時代、目前的資訊時代之後,未來世界會邁向的感性時代。老師也分享了在這資訊爆炸的時代我們主要會遇到的挑戰和需要具備的能力。其中包裹了過濾和整合資訊的能力,人脈能力(感性力),價值創造能力等。

當中身為讀書會裏唯一一個90後的我問了老師一個我本身比較關注的問題:“我們這些90後的相比上幾代的人在市場/商場/職場上有什麽優勢,還有那些需要注意的事項?”。

据漢東老師的分析,我們90後的人由於教育和科技普及化,我們學東西和找資訊的能力也比較強了,還有一個是老師稱之爲“工具力”的能力,那就是新機器一上手就搞懂怎麽搞的能力,我們也比較強了。

至於弱勢,或是我們比較欠缺的,但我們這個時代也不怎麽需要的就有如耐勞力,舉例以前農業時代人類需要長時期勞力下田耕種,耐勞力自然相對比較重要了,而時代是不會倒退的,世界不可能從機器耕種再返回到人力耕種的時代的,所以在這方面的能力雖然我們佔有劣勢,也沒什麽大礙。

另方面90後欠缺,而又在這個時代上比較需要的能力就有上面說到的人脈能力(感性力),也就是High Touch 而不只是 High Tech 的能力、價值創造能力(為社會創造新價值的能力)、還有價值觀包容的能力(接受別人觀點的能力)。

裟婆行者
Kakyn Khok

Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Passing any laws does not require two-third majority


Who says we need two-third majority to pass Hudud law? Passing any laws requires only a simple majority (1/2), this includes Hudud law.

What needs 2/3 majority is only for the amendment to the federal constitution (eg. Declaring Malaysia as an Islamic country). Not being Islamic country does not mean we cannot enforce Hudud law.

Lets look can MP candidates who contest under GE13:
PAKATAN RAKYAT------>142 muslim, non muslim 80 (63.96% muslims)
BARISAN NASIONAL---> 130 muslim, non muslim 92 (58.56% muslims)

Of course, not all PR's muslim MP candidates advocate for Hudud, many are still left-thinking PKR candidates, and there're also PR's MP candidates who is representing the liberal DAP.

PAS has sets its tone very clear that they're fighting for making Malaysia an Islamic country, but they promise that nothing will affect non-muslims.

But how can someone (a non-muslim) believes that their lives won't be affected, if our rest day changed to Friday and Saturday? We're competing in a globalization era and our operating workday is out of sync with the world and it doesn't affect our lives (and our stakeholders abroad?)

How can our lives and emotions not affected when we see our muslim brothers being punished under Hudud?

Human have emotions, human empathizes.

If one can feel envious of certain privilege other tribes of the society enjoys, how can't one (same human with emotion) feel sympathy for legal consequences other tribes of the society has to bear?

Pakatan Rakyat's supporter,namely the non-bumis criticize BN to create double standard for the privilege by ethics, but now PR itself advocates for another double standard for the legal treatment, this time, by religions.

Saturday, April 27, 2013

Sensitive issue in Malaysia


Sensitive issue is also an issue, Malaysian leaders should not divert attention or avoid answering question on their political stance. Avoiding answering question on your political stance doesn't make that issue disappear, it just advertises your indecisiveness.

When MCA and Gerakan question Pakatan's leader on their stance on Hudud and Islamic country, only Karpal Singh a firm assertion of NO! to this political standing. DSAI, Lim Kit Siang and Lim Guan Eng remain silent on this matter. Karpal Singh contests under my district, and he'd definitely earned my vote for his assertiveness.

I'm sure Lim Guan Eng doesn't mind Malaysia being Islamic country and Hudud applying in Malaysia as long as he is in power. After all, being a Catholic, he doesn't mind taking praying incense on Penang Hokkien's "Pai Ti Kong" night, how would he care about his political stance when he can't even stick to his own (Catholic) religious standing? He's just a FCUKING Machiavellian!

Meanwhile, I saw ads in Sin Chew (MCA-owned Chinese daily) which is trying to earn some votes by spreading Islamophobic messages (ie. voting PR = voting for Hudud, no concerts, no pork, no parties). I fail to understand how can UMNO remain silent when their ally(MCA) is trying to earn votes by promoting Islamophobia.

Last few years, when Najib was trying to invite PAS to join BN, I also failed to understand how can MCA remain silence when they are so Islamophobic.

It seems that Malaysian political leaders have developed a skill, to remain silent when the people question what their ally advocates (which contradicts their own political stance), and that's very uncool.

Sunday, February 17, 2013

現實和膚淺是兩個境界


最近的一項關照:

現實的人不會把“我很現實”挂在口中,而膚淺的人則喜歡把“我很現實”挂在口中。

我喜歡跟現實的朋友聊,他們都是有故事的人,和他們通常都可以學到很多,至少可以增加我的見聞。短短的一次閒聊裏很容易看到他們冰山的構造(行爲、感受、價值觀、期待、渴望等。欲了解冰山理論可搜尋 Satir Model)。他們很少會把“我很現實”挂在口中,在分享他們的故事時很乾脆的直接分享他們的感受、出發點、他們要的是什麽、爲什麽他們會做出他們的決定和做了決定過後的發生。我想他們在分享故事分享的題材已經夠多了,根本就沒有時間去想“我很現實”的這種概念,所以自然不會把“我很現實”挂在口中。

反而常把“我很現實”挂在口中的,往往不是現實的人,也不是踏實的人,而是膚淺的人。他們有沒有故事我完全沒興趣,即使有故事也不是有啟發性的故事,跟他們聊天沒有任何意義。在冰山架構上除了看到他們的行爲和聼他們說出的價值觀(“這個cheap!”、“那個cheap!”)。往往膚淺的人的Defense mechanism本身也很強,根本不會給你機會深入冰山去認識真正的他,讓你看到那價值觀冰底下的東西。這對我也無所謂,反正我根本不會有想進而破冰的衝動。

下面我用“愛錢”的現象來做分析:

現實的人愛錢,往往在跟他們破冰聼他們講故事時會發現到他們價值觀的形成。也許聽見他們跟你說小時候窮怕的故事后你會發現原來冰底下他缺乏安全感,渴望經濟上的安穩,才會有現在“愛錢”的現象。

而膚淺的人愛錢,則是不會給你機會了解他價值觀是怎麽形成的,往往他們連自己也選擇性遺忘掉他們的故事,因爲沒有勇氣正視自己的過去、
面對自己的陰影。

當然“愛錢”只是其中一個現象,你也一樣可以用冰山來關照“貪圖名利”、“愛美”、“愛慕虛榮”等現象。
所以說以後聽到人家說“我很現實”的時候,別急著相信他,很可能他只是不好意思說“我很膚淺”罷了。
挲婆行者
Kakyn Khok